Protect Your Head

The Urban Dictionary defines “naysayer” as: One who frequently engages in excessive complaining, negative banter and/or a genuinely poor and downbeat attitude.

My oldest daughter, Jordan was in preschool when it hit me.  I volunteered with classes and knew who the trouble makers were.  I suddenly knew what my parents meant when they said “you need to mind your company”.  It was apparent that I needed to be aware of who my daughter was hanging out with, for obvious reasons.  It wasn’t long before realizing that the protection I wanted for my children was void in my own life.

After analyzing, I awoke to find that some of the people in my inner circle were people that I would never want my children to hang around with, so why was I allowing them in my circle?  I had to make some tough decisions and distance myself from some “friends”, clients and even family.

I am constantly scanning my surroundings and am being vigilant in controlling what enters my head.  As an example, in light of this year’s elections, we have suspended our television service.  I don’t watch much TV; however I choose to not let that crap enter my family’s environment.

Many times, I cannot control what happens around or to me, but I can choose to whom and what I give my precious time to.  It has taken me way too long to realize that I am in control of my life and my destiny and everything in my life are the result of the choices I have made. 

Living a purpose-driven life is not easy.  I must make decisions every day to protect myself and my family and am not always successful.  Sometimes, I even have to protect me from myself!  Naysayers are everywhere and the more aware I become, it seems the more I am under attack.

People are either faucets or they are drains.  They either lift me up or tear me down.  Sometimes it takes a while to realize the truth, but once I do, I must take action.  I strive to lift those up around me, learn from my mistakes and never let the naysayers enter my circle.

When they say, “it can’t be done”, I hear, “I didn’t want it bad enough to get it done”.  I say, go find someone who has done it and learn.  I say that passion with a goal can overcome ANY hurdle and stepping over, around or through a naysayer is a task that gives me pleasure.

If these influences exist in your life, it is because you allow it.  Make the choice to shed negativity in your life and free your soul.

This is not to say that debate is not encouraged.  Healthy debate is the catalyst of many great ideas.  Be aware and know the difference.

MY world is and always will be a “life sucker”-free zone.  Hopefully yours is, too!

Asheville Real Estate Report-November 2011 (Residential)

Happy November!

Does anything feel different?  As far as the real estate market goes??  No???  Me either after reading the news.  Just the usual doom & gloom.  That is, until I pulled my numbers this month.

The last time my report reflected less than 14 months of inventory was summer of 2008.  Based on the previous 6 months’ sales,  there is presently 13.9 months of inventory on market.  In May of 2009, this number was at 27.3 months.  November 2010-17.5 were were down to months of inventory.

#1-Jan 2009-Nov 2011

The Absorption (months of inventory) is derived from the relationship between active inventory on market and the number of sales (past 6 months) averaged monthly.

#2-Jan 2009-Nov 2011

The closer the lines in chart #2 get, the more balanced the market.

The pending ratio (contracts to inventory) is up to 14.3%, again due to the lower inventory and more units pended.  Presently, there are 429 residential properties under contract, up from last year’s 358.

The median price has nudged back up to $190,000.

For the report and to see the numbers in specific price ranges, go here:

11-12-11 Buncombe Co

In summary, it is slow and steady, but there is continued improvement in our housing market.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Scott

Asheville Real Estate Report-August, 2011

For the past 3 months, Buncombe County residential real estate sales are showing a net POSITIVE absorption of inventory.  There has been a gradual decline of inventory since June and number of units sold have been on steady increase since March.

Our median price range is holding steady at last months’ figure of $185,000.  It is my opinion that this figure will not go much further south, if at all.  The median price was $195,000 a year ago.

Here’s the snapshot:

Active Listings: 3,275 (DOWN 12.3% from last year/DOWN 2.3% from last month)
Pending Contracts: 405 (UP 6.58% from last year/DOWN 5.2% from last month)
Closed Units (6 months prior): 1,212 (DOWN 1.3% from last year/UP 13.9% from last month)  The -1.3% from last year is actually a  positive reflection of the market with last year’s tax credit taken into consideration.
Pending Ratio: 12.4% (UP from last year’s 10.2% and slightly DOWN from last month’s 12.7%) This is expected as we get past the spring bump.

75.8% of Buncombe County sales are below $300,000.  The sweet spot is from $200k to $250k where 12.5% of sales land.

The above data was pulled from MLS.  To see specific price range data, get your report HERE

Asheville Real Estate Report-July 12, 2011

The shift continues for Buncombe County residential real estate…

How low can our median price go?  We won’t know until it is rising again and this months’ report won’t tell us. What it does tell us is that the median price for residential real estate sales are still in the 2004-2005 range at $185,000.  This is the lowest we’ve seen in 7 years.

75.8 of those sales closed below the price of $299,900.  There have been 1,064 residential sales in the past 6 months, 174 (16.4%) of them were REO (bank-owned).  224 (21.05%) were either REO, short sales or in foreclosure process.

I’ve got to say folks, real estate is a localized market and I am amazed at our prices compared to other markets!  Yes, they are high in comparison to other southern cities.

Spring has given us a market that has absorbed inventory.  We presently have 18.9 months of inventory available in Buncombe County, based on the last 6 month sales.

Our pending ratio* has inched down to 12.7% from last month’s 13.3%.   Inventory is hanging steady at 3,353 active units, sales are up in spring-like fashion with 1,064 properties closed in the past 6 months.

For a breakdown of price ranges, get your July report HERE

Folks, if you are sitting on the sidelines watching, you may want to pad-up and get in the game.  You’re going to look back one day and wish you did!

Have a fun summer

*Pending Ratio: # of properties under contract in relation to active inventory (“Active Inventory” INCLUDES pending properties…a property is “active” until it is “closed”).

June 2011 Asheville Real Estate Report

Greetings,

Our Asheville market, specifically Buncombe County, has made some shifts.

Our residential market reflects that 75.5% of our sales in the past 6 months were below $300,000.  This would help explain how our median sales price (based on 6 months sales) now sits the lowest since 2004/2005 at $185,950.

Our active inventory is up 2.63% from last month and down 12.7% from last year (3,358 active listings).

Properties under contract (pending) are up 13.2% from last month and up 10.4% from last year.  13.3% of active inventory is under contract.  How many of those will actually close, we don’t know.

We are still hanging right at 20 months of inventory based on 6 months of sales.

The number of closings (6 months historical) are 4.52% from last month and down 8.64% from last year.  Last year’s tax credit helps explain this.

To check your price range of interest pick up the report 6-12-11 Buncombe Co-sr

Our commercial market is volatile.  Spring traffic is surely up, tenants are racing for spaces and the landlords are making concessions to get them.

Investors are out and purchases are being made.  CAP rates are still climbing in some sectors and obtaining financing is still a challenge for most.  Owner occupied properties are the lenders’ bulls eye these days and investment properties are under strict scrutiny from the banks with lower LTV and higher DCR.  The deals are abundant and cash is king.

The cash players are enjoying great returns through REOs, short sales and purchasing notes from the banks.

Now go buy something!

September Asheville Area Real Estate Absorption Report

Hi Everyone,

It is September and the weather is feeling better every day.  Love this time of year (I love all times of year in Asheville, NC)!

Real Estate is both challenging and rewarding.  Being in constant pursuit of knowledge and opportunity, I am having a ball.

The Brown & Raines Commercial Group has taken just short of $20 Million in listings in the past month, successfully completed several office leases as well as retail.  We are working through a restaurant sale as well as some fast food chain site selection.  SO busy!!

BUT…never too busy to check in with the residential sector.  Click HERE for September’s report.  Click HERE for 2009/2010 comparison.

 Looking at the aggregate Buncombe County data, the absorption (months of inventory) has gradually improved every month since June, now showing that we have 17.2 months of inventory on the market as opposed to 20.9 months in September of 2009.  Now let’s look under that hood…

Active Inventory, now at 3,667 properties is 5% less than 2009, which was 3,857.
The # of sales (past 6 months) look good at 1,281 which is 15.7% better than 2009 which was 1,107.  These 6 month sales of course include the expired tax credit closings, helping our numbers look a little better.

As I have mentioned in the past couple of reports, what is bugging me is that point where the rubber meets the road…the number of pending contracts.  On September 16, there were 393 pending contracts (10.7% of our active inventory).  Last year in September, there were 563 pending contracts (14.6% of the active inventory).  This number reflects how the next couple of months’ closed sales are going to look.  Who knows how many of the 10.7% will actually make it to close?!  Not all of them for sure!

Median price range has bumped up a bit to $198,325, from last month’s $195,000.  I’m sure we’ll see this number dance around this area for a while.

There are SO MANY great deals out here, I’m like a kid in a candy store!!  We have a self-directed IRA that is working hard for us in real estate as well as most other dollar we have.  This is a GREAT time to invest in real estate!

Don’t like getting your hands dirty?  How about being a passive investor in real estate?  Do you have an IRA or investment capital that is not currently earning a SECURED high rate of return?  We are also real estate investors and at times, we borrow money from individuals to buy distressed properties, repair them to sell or lease.

The stock market is very scary now, bonds, cd’s and the like aren’t paying squat, so why not “be the bank” and earn 5%-7% on your money?  Contact me today to learn more!!

Thanks for playing…come visit me on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube.

July 11, 2010 Buncombe Co. Absorption Report

Greetings,

Welcome to my monthly Buncombe County residential real estate analysis.

We have 3 (yes, THREE) fewer properties actively on the market today than in July, 2009.  There are presently 3,772 improved residential properties for sale in Buncombe County (Asheville area).

371 (9.8%) of those are under contract and hopefully are on their way to closing.  My experience tells me that they won’t all make it there of course.  A year ago 14.7% were under contract (we were at 10.5% pending last month).  Our present pending ratio is the lowest since I have been creating these reports.  The sudden reduction could very well be because of the expiration of the first time home buyers’ tax credit.  The same could also be said about our increase in the number of sales since the tax credit began.  The deadline basically forced the market to complete sales, many of which would have closed at a later date.

This basically means that you must rank in the top 9.8% of active inventory in “value” if you want your property to actually sell.  With the many foreclosures and short sales out there, a seller has tremendous competition.  I’ve almost forgotten what a good old fashion “arm’s length transaction” is.

The number of sales were actually higher in the winter, again surely due to first time home buyer credit.  Today we are at 1,176 sales in the past 6 months compared to last month’s 1,088 and last year’s 899.

Now let’s talk median sales price.  Again, we see a decrease this month to $191,500.  This is surely a correction that had to be made from the bloated values we saw in 2007 of $228,000.  For your reference, the median sales price in 2000 were $138,500 and headed straight up every year until reaching the 2007 high with the sharpest spike being from 2004-2007.

Overall, we are now sitting on 19.2 months of inventory.  To see your specific price range, see my latest report:  7-11-10 Buncombe Co Report.  For a side by side with 2009, go here: 2009/2010 Analysis.

These are surely the times when the intelligent investor is busy evaluating and making offers on properties.  If you have access to the funds, there are many opportunities out there.  If you wait, you will wish you had done something.  Unless you are experienced, PLEASE seek the help of a professional.  There are great potentials out there, but there are just as many dangers if you don’t know what you are doing.

Do you think you don’t have the $?  There are many creative options for you anyway.  Tired of losing your money in the stock market? Have you explored self-directed IRA’s?  Again, seek a professional’s opinion.

My reports are compiled from MLS data and are based on 6 month historical figures.

See you next time,

Scott